Potential impact of implementing and scaling up harm reduction and antiretroviral therapy on HIV prevalence and mortality and overdose deaths among people who inject drugs in two Russian cities: a modelling study

The Lancet. HIV
Javier A CepedaNatasha K Martin

Abstract

Most new HIV infections among people who inject drugs (PWID) in eastern Europe and central Asia occur in Russia, where PWID have a high risk of overdose. In Russia, use of opioid agonist therapy (OAT) is prohibited, and coverage of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) is poor. We aimed to assess the effects that scaling up harm reduction (ie, use of OAT and coverage of NSPs) and use of ART might have on HIV incidence and the frequency of fatal overdoses among PWID in two cities in the Ural Federal District and Siberian Federal District, where the prevalence of HIV is high or increasing in PWID. In this modelling study, we developed a dynamic deterministic model that simulated transmission of HIV through injection drug use and sex among PWID. We calibrated this model to HIV prevalence data among PWID in two Russian cities: Omsk (which has high but increasing prevalence of HIV among PWID) and Ekaterinburg (which has very high but stable prevalence of HIV). The source data were from research studies supported by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria and US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and surveillance studies from WHO and regional AIDS centres. We modelled the effec...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 2, 2019·Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS·Raminta StuikyteMichel Kazatchkine
Nov 5, 2019·Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health·Sergey TimoninEvgeny Andreev
Aug 2, 2019·Current Opinion in HIV and AIDS·Tim Brown, Wiwat Peerapatanapokin
Apr 18, 2019·Bulletin of the World Health Organization·Linda-Gail BekkerChris Beyrer
Jan 11, 2020·Nature Reviews. Disease Primers·John StrangSharon L Walsh
Jul 30, 2021·The International Journal on Drug Policy·Sarah LarneyMatthew Hickman
Nov 19, 2021·Epidemiologic Reviews·Magdalena CerdáKatherine M Keyes

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