PMID: 29466517Feb 22, 2018Paper

Potential occurrence of Zika from subtropical to temperate Argentina considering the basic reproduction number (R0)

Revista Panamericana De Salud Pública = Pan American Journal of Public Health
Pablo OrellanoOscar Salomon

Abstract

To assess the potential occurrence of Zika transmission throughout Argentina by the mosquito Aedes aegypti considering the basic reproduction number (R0). A model originally developed for dengue was adapted for Zika. R0 was estimated as a function of seven parameters, three of them were considered temperature-dependent. Seasonal Zika occurrence was evaluated in 9 locations representing different climatic suitability for the vector. Data of diary temperatures were extracted and included in the model. A threshold of R0 = 1 was fixed for Zika occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the uncertainty around the results. Zika transmission has the potential to occur in all studied locations at least in some moment of the year. In the northern region, transmission might be possible throughout the whole year or with an interruption in winter. The maximum R0 was estimated in 6.9, which means an average of 7 secondary cases from a primary case. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that during winter the transmission can only be excluded in the southern fringe of geographic distribution of the vector and in part of central Argentina. Zika virus has the potential to be transmitted in Argentina throughout the curr...Continue Reading

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