Poverty dynamics, poverty thresholds and mortality: An age-stage Markovian model

PloS One
Shayna Fae BernsteinCarol C Horvitz

Abstract

Recent studies have examined the risk of poverty throughout the life course, but few have considered how transitioning in and out of poverty shape the dynamic heterogeneity and mortality disparities of a cohort at each age. Here we use state-by-age modeling to capture individual heterogeneity in crossing one of three different poverty thresholds (defined as 1×, 2× or 3× the "official" poverty threshold) at each age. We examine age-specific state structure, the remaining life expectancy, its variance, and cohort simulations for those above and below each threshold. Survival and transitioning probabilities are statistically estimated by regression analyses of data from the Health and Retirement Survey RAND data-set, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Using the results of these regression analyses, we parameterize discrete state, discrete age matrix models. We found that individuals above all three thresholds have higher annual survival than those in poverty, especially for mid-ages to about age 80. The advantage is greatest when we classify individuals based on 1× the "official" poverty threshold. The greatest discrepancy in average remaining life expectancy and its variance between those above and in poverty occurs a...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 23, 2019·Inquiry : a Journal of Medical Care Organization, Provision and Financing·Sericea Stallings-Smith, Taylor Ballantyne
Jan 1, 2020·The British Journal of Clinical Psychology·Adriana Espinosa, Sasha Rudenstine
Sep 3, 2020·PloS One·Aleksandra Łuczak, Sławomir Kalinowski
Jan 5, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Esteban Ortiz-PradoRachel Lowe

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