Practical comparison of aberration detection algorithms for biosurveillance systems

Journal of Biomedical Informatics
Hong ZhouUmed Ajani

Abstract

National syndromic surveillance systems require optimal anomaly detection methods. For method performance comparison, we injected multi-day signals stochastically drawn from lognormal distributions into time series of aggregated daily visit counts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's BioSense syndromic surveillance system. The time series corresponded to three different syndrome groups: rash, upper respiratory infection, and gastrointestinal illness. We included a sample of facilities with data reported every day and with median daily syndromic counts ⩾1 over the entire study period. We compared anomaly detection methods of five control chart adaptations, a linear regression model and a Poisson regression model. We assessed sensitivity and timeliness of these methods for detection of multi-day signals. At a daily background alert rate of 1% and 2%, the sensitivities and timeliness ranged from 24 to 77% and 3.3 to 6.1days, respectively. The overall sensitivity and timeliness increased substantially after stratification by weekday versus weekend and holiday. Adjusting the baseline syndromic count by the total number of facility visits gave consistently improved sensitivity and timeliness without stratificati...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 12, 2017·Public Health Reports·Richard S HopkinsLaura C Streichert
Sep 7, 2019·BMC Public Health·Madeline A WardLise A Trotz-Williams
Nov 30, 2019·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Céline FaverjonJohn Berezowski
Oct 30, 2020·Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives·Yousef AlimohamadiKourosh Holakouie-Naieni

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