Practical identifiability and uncertainty quantification of a pulsatile cardiovascular model

Mathematical Biosciences
Andrew D MarquisMette S Olufsen

Abstract

Mathematical models are essential tools to study how the cardiovascular system maintains homeostasis. The utility of such models is limited by the accuracy of their predictions, which can be determined by uncertainty quantification (UQ). A challenge associated with the use of UQ is that many published methods assume that the underlying model is identifiable (e.g. that a one-to-one mapping exists from the parameter space to the model output). In this study we present a novel workflow to calibrate a lumped-parameter model to left ventricular pressure and volume time series data. Key steps include using (1) literature and available data to determine nominal parameter values; (2) sensitivity analysis and subset selection to determine a set of identifiable parameters; (3) optimization to find a point estimate for identifiable parameters; and (4) frequentist and Bayesian UQ calculations to assess the predictive capability of the model. Our results show that it is possible to determine 5 identifiable model parameters that can be estimated to our experimental data from three rats, and that computed UQ intervals capture the measurement and model error.

Citations

Sep 14, 2018·Biological cybernetics·Maria-Veronica CiocanelMette S Olufsen
Jun 4, 2019·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Nakeya D WilliamsMette S Olufsen
Dec 12, 2019·Royal Society Open Science·Karen LarsonAnastasios Matzavinos
May 7, 2020·The Journal of Physiology·Amanda L ColungaBrian E Carlson
Jul 29, 2020·Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Part H, Journal of Engineering in Medicine·Megan J ChambersMette S Olufsen
Jul 30, 2019·International Journal for Numerical Methods in Biomedical Engineering·Mitchel J ColebankMette S Olufsen
Apr 28, 2020·Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering·Casey M FleeterAlison L Marsden
Jun 22, 2019·Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering·Justin S TranAlison L Marsden
Apr 25, 2021·Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE·Christophe Prud'hommeMarcela Szopos
May 14, 2021·Journal of Theoretical Biology·E Benjamin RandallMette S Olufsen
Jun 5, 2021·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Andrei A Domogo, Johnny T Ottesen
Sep 27, 2019·Medical Engineering & Physics·D Rodney HoseFrans N van de Vosse

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