Predicting a change in the order of spring phenology in temperate forests

Global Change Biology
Adrian M I RobertsAlbert B Phillimore

Abstract

The rise in spring temperatures over the past half-century has led to advances in the phenology of many nontropical plants and animals. As species and populations differ in their phenological responses to temperature, an increase in temperatures has the potential to alter timing-dependent species interactions. One species-interaction that may be affected is the competition for light in deciduous forests, where early vernal species have a narrow window of opportunity for growth before late spring species cast shade. Here we consider the Marsham phenology time series of first leafing dates of thirteen tree species and flowering dates of one ground flora species, which spans two centuries. The exceptional length of this time series permits a rare comparison of the statistical support for parameter-rich regression and mechanistic thermal sensitivity phenology models. While mechanistic models perform best in the majority of cases, both they and the regression models provide remarkably consistent insights into the relative sensitivity of each species to forcing and chilling effects. All species are sensitive to spring forcing, but we also find that vernal and northern European species are responsive to cold temperatures in the previo...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 10, 2015·The New Phytologist·Liana T BurghardtKathleen Donohue
Jun 11, 2015·Global Change Biology·Loeske E B KruukAndrew Cockburn
May 14, 2016·Global Change Biology·Albert B PhillimoreJarrod D Hadfield
Dec 16, 2016·PloS One·Liam D Bailey, Martijn van de Pol
Jan 16, 2019·American Journal of Botany·Susan C C GordonMegan E Frederickson
Jun 5, 2019·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Emily G SimmondsBen C Sheldon
Aug 7, 2020·Global Change Biology·Xiaojun GengJosep Peñuelas
Nov 21, 2018·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Daniel S ParkCharles C Davis
May 13, 2018·International Journal of Biometeorology·Jian Huang, HongFei Hao
May 4, 2017·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Sandra StålhandskeOlof Leimar
Apr 3, 2019·Applications in Plant Sciences·Barnabas H DaruAbraham E van Wyk
Apr 29, 2021·Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society·Yann VitasseJonathan Lenoir
Mar 26, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Franziska M WillemsOliver Bossdorf
May 2, 2021·The New Phytologist·Catherine J Chamberlain, E M Wolkovich
Dec 1, 2021·International Journal of Biometeorology·P B CerliniM Fornaciari

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Software Mentioned

Coda
hydroPSO
mgcv
UniForc
R Development Core Team
JAGS MCMC
UniChill
R R Development Core Team
R
GenSA

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