Predicting future years of healthy life for older adults

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Paula DiehrJ D Williamson

Abstract

Cost-effectiveness studies often need to compare the cost of a program to the lifetime benefits of the program, but estimates of lifetime benefits are not routinely available, especially for older adults. We used data from two large longitudinal studies of older adults (ages 65-100) to estimate transition probabilities from one health state to another, and used those probabilities to estimate the mean additional years of healthy life that an older adult of specified age, sex, and health status would experience. We found, for example, that 65-year-old women in excellent health can expect 16.8 years of healthy life in the future, compared to only 8.5 years for women in poor health. We also provide estimates of discounted years of healthy life and future life expectancy. These estimates may be used to extend the effective length of the study period in cost-effectiveness studies, to examine the impact of chronic diseases or risk factors on years of healthy life, or to investigate the relationship of years of life to years of healthy life. Several applications are described.

References

Feb 1, 1991·Annals of Epidemiology·L P FriedA Newman
Jan 1, 1990·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·M C Weinstein, A N Tosteson
May 1, 1983·Journal of Gerontology·W C CockerhamJ A Wilcox
Aug 1, 1982·American Journal of Public Health·J M Mossey, E Shapiro
Jan 1, 1995·International Journal of Epidemiology·D L PatrickD E Grembowski
Sep 1, 1994·Medical Care·N M Krause, G M Jay
Oct 1, 1993·American Journal of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation·M JohnstonD Wilkerson
Mar 1, 1997·Journal of Health and Social Behavior·E L Idler, Y Benyamini
Nov 22, 1997·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·K K LeungB H Lue

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Dec 19, 2003·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Paula Diehr, Shirley A A Beresford
Nov 2, 2002·Journal of the American Geriatrics Society·Joseph H FlahertyMichael R Wasserman
May 14, 2009·The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences·Omer T NjajouUNKNOWN Health ABC study
Mar 25, 2009·American Journal of Clinical Oncology·Chantal S LegerLinda M Vickars
Dec 25, 2008·American Journal of Public Health·Joe FeinglassDorothy D Dunlop
Jul 10, 2012·Journal of Geriatric Oncology·Ashwin A KotwalWilliam Dale
Sep 12, 2007·Statistics in Medicine·Paula DiehrAnne B Newman
Oct 10, 2006·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·Monica Ortendahl, James F Fries
May 20, 2004·Health Services Research·Truls Østbye, Donald H Taylor
Oct 26, 2013·BMC Health Services Research·Marc CarrerasJose M Inoriza
Jan 8, 2008·Journal of Health Economics·Philip DeCicca, Logan McLeod
Dec 13, 2005·Arthritis and Rheumatism·Joe FeinglassDavid W Baker
Jun 15, 2005·Cancer Causes & Control : CCC·Dora Il'yasovaCharles Poole
May 29, 2004·Current Opinion in Critical Care·Thomas D Rea, Valentine L Paredes
May 3, 2002·Current Controlled Trials in Cardiovascular Medicine·Paula DiehrNeil Powe
Feb 2, 2010·Statistical Science : a Review Journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics·Brenda F KurlandPaula H Diehr

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.