PMID: 9431329Feb 7, 1998Paper

Predicting in-hospital deaths from coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Do different severity measures give different predictions?

Medical Care
L I IezzoniY D Mackiernan

Abstract

Severity-adjusted death rates for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery by provider are published throughout the country. Whether five severity measures rated severity differently for identical patients was examined in this study. Two severity measures rate patients using clinical data taken from the first two hospital days (MedisGroups, physiology scores); three use diagnoses and other information coded on standard, computerized hospital discharge abstracts (Disease Staging, Patient Management Categories, all patient refined diagnosis related groups). The database contained 7,764 coronary artery bypass graft patients from 38 hospitals with 3.2% in-hospital deaths. Logistic regression was performed to predict deaths from age, age squared, sex, and severity scores, and c statistics from these regressions were used to indicate model discrimination. Odds ratios of death predicted by different severity measures were compared. Code-based measures had better c statistics than clinical measures: all patient refined diagnosis related groups, c = 0.83 (95% C.I. 0.81, 0.86) versus MedisGroups, c = 0.73 (95% C.I. 0.70, 0.76). Code-based measures predicted very different odds of dying than clinical measures for more than 30% of patie...Continue Reading

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