Predicting prey population dynamics from kill rate, predation rate and predator-prey ratios in three wolf-ungulate systems

The Journal of Animal Ecology
John A VucetichRolf O Peterson

Abstract

1. Predation rate (PR) and kill rate are both fundamental statistics for understanding predation. However, relatively little is known about how these statistics relate to one another and how they relate to prey population dynamics. We assess these relationships across three systems where wolf-prey dynamics have been observed for 41 years (Isle Royale), 19 years (Banff) and 12 years (Yellowstone). 2. To provide context for this empirical assessment, we developed theoretical predictions of the relationship between kill rate and PR under a broad range of predator-prey models including predator-dependent, ratio-dependent and Lotka-Volterra dynamics. 3. The theoretical predictions indicate that kill rate can be related to PR in a variety of diverse ways (e.g. positive, negative, unrelated) that depend on the nature of predator-prey dynamics (e.g. structure of the functional response). These simulations also suggested that the ratio of predator-to-prey is a good predictor of prey growth rate. That result motivated us to assess the empirical relationship between the ratio and prey growth rate for each of the three study sites. 4. The empirical relationships indicate that PR is not well predicted by kill rate, but is better predicted b...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 13, 2011·Carbon Balance and Management·Christopher PotterVanessa Genovese
Apr 25, 2013·PloS One·Joseph K BumpBrian J Roell
Jul 26, 2012·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Nicholas J DeCesareMarco Musiani
Dec 5, 2012·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Robert A MontgomeryKelly F Millenbah
Jan 21, 2012·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Matthew C MetzRolf O Peterson
Jun 24, 2015·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Robert SerrouyaStan Boutin
Mar 8, 2020·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Christopher C WilmersDouglas W Smith
Apr 17, 2020·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Samantha M MaherWiktor L Adamowicz
Jun 12, 2020·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Quinn PaytonKen Collis
Jan 9, 2019·Ecology and Evolution·Frédéric Barraquand, Ólafur K Nielsen
Feb 10, 2017·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Aimee TallianHåkan Sand
Jun 6, 2021·Current Biology : CB·Daniel W E SankeySteven J Portugal
May 26, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jennifer L RaynorDominic P Parker

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