Predicting risk of habitat conversion in native temperate grasslands

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Scott E StephensAaron Smith

Abstract

Native grasslands that support diverse populations of birds are being converted to cropland at an increasing rate in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Although limited funding is currently available to mitigate losses, accurate predictions of probability of conversion would increase the efficiency of conservation measures. We studied conversion of native grassland to cropland in the Missouri Coteau region of North and South Dakota (U.S.A.) during 1989-2003. We estimated the probability of conversion of native grassland to cropland with satellite imagery and logistic regression models that predicted risk of conversion and by comparing the overlap between areas of high biological value and areas most vulnerable to conversion. Annualized probability of conversion was 0.004, and 36,540 ha of native grassland were converted to cropland during the period of our study. Our predictive models fit the data and correctly predicted 70% of observed conversions of grassland. Probability of conversion varied spatially and was correlated with landscape features like amount of surrounding grassland, slope, and soil productivity. Tracts of high biological value were not always at high risk of conversion. We concluded the most biologic...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 30, 2013·Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment·Kenneth M SylvesterRachel N Kornak
Feb 23, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Christopher K Wright, Michael C Wimberly
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Feb 22, 2017·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Mark Braza

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