Predicting smallpox epidemics: A statistical analysis of two Finnish populations

American Journal of Human Biology : the Official Journal of the Human Biology Council
L B JordeJ H Mielke

Abstract

We analysis data on death due to smallpox in two subdivided Finish populations, the relatively isolated Åland Islands and the mainland parish of Kitee. The data span a 135-year time period (1750-1885). Logisitic regression and Cox proportional hazards models are used to assess the effects of predictive variables on (1) the probability that an individual subdivision experiences an epidemic and (2) the length of the time period between two epidemics in each subdivision. The predictive variables include population sizes, migration rates, geographic distance, and presence or absence of vaccination. Vaccination was found to be the single most important predicative variable (odds ratio = 6.3 in Åland and 4.4 in Kitee). No other variable were significant predicators in Kitee, while geographic distance was an additional significant predicator in Åland (odds ratio = 1.05). As expected, vaccination and geographic distance were both negatively associated with the probability of epidemic occurrence. The Mantel regression approach was used to evaluate the effects of independent variables on the probability that any two subdivisions experienced the same epidemic. Between-subdivision migration rates were the most important predictive variable...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Jan 1, 1993·Transplant International : Official Journal of the European Society for Organ Transplantation·J PruimM J Slooff
Jan 1, 1992·Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology : the Official Journal of the Society of Hospital Epidemiologists of America·L E NicolleS Parker
Feb 1, 1991·American Journal of Physical Anthropology·L B Jorde, K J Pitkänen

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