Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

BMC Public Health
Fernanda Carvalho de Queiroz MelloGuilherme Loureiro Werneck

Abstract

Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 5, 2011·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Lely SolariPatrick van der Stuyft
Jan 2, 2010·BMC Infectious Diseases·Luciene C SchererAfrânio L Kritski
Mar 13, 2014·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Rajendra P YadavYoel Lubell
Jan 31, 2015·Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology : the Official Journal of the Society of Hospital Epidemiologists of America·Berenice das Dores GonçalvesFernanda Carvalho de Queiroz Mello
Aug 21, 2013·Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH·Alonso SotoPatrick Van der Stuyft
Sep 17, 2016·PloS One·Helder Novais BastosMargarida Saraiva
Dec 18, 2015·Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical·Juliana Figueirêdo da Costa LimaHaiana Charifker Schindler
Oct 1, 2020·Revista Da Sociedade Brasileira De Medicina Tropical·Juliana Figueirêdo da Costa-LimaHaiana Charifker Schindler
Mar 20, 2019·Frontiers in Microbiology·Muhammad Tahir KhanDong-Qing Wei
Jul 1, 2018·Indian Journal of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery : Official Organ, Association of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgeons of India·Satyaprakash SanjeevaiahShashidhar Buggi

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
nucleic acid amplification
bronchoalveolar lavage
ELISA

Software Mentioned

STATA
SNPT
Plus

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