Nov 1, 1993

Predicting survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a graphic model

Annals of Emergency Medicine
M P LarsenA P Hallstrom

Abstract

To develop a graphic model that describes survival from sudden out-of-hospital cardiac arrest as a function of time intervals to critical prehospital interventions. From a cardiac arrest surveillance system in place since 1976 in King County, Washington, we selected 1,667 cardiac arrest patients with a high likelihood of survival: they had underlying heart disease, were in ventricular fibrillation, and had arrested before arrival of emergency medical services (EMS) personnel. For each patient, we obtained the time intervals from collapse to CPR, to first defibrillatory shock, and to initiation of advanced cardiac life support (ACLS). A multiple linear regression model fitting the data gave the following equation: survival rate = 67%-2.3% per minute to CPR-1.1% per minute to defibrillation-2.1% per minute to ACLS, which was significant at P < .001. The first term, 67%, represents the survival rate if all three interventions were to occur immediately on collapse. Without treatment (CPR, defibrillatory shock, or definitive care), the decline in survival rate is the sum of the three coefficients, or 5.5% per minute. Survival rates predicted by the model for given EMS response times approximated published observed rates for EMS syst...Continue Reading

  • References9
  • Citations379

Citations

Mentioned in this Paper

Acrocallosal Syndrome
Ventricular Fibrillation
Emergency Care
Transcription Initiation
Shock
Sleep Disorders, Circadian Rhythm
Theoretical Study
GLI3 gene
Heart Diseases
Linear Regression Body Surface Area Formula for Infants and Children

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