Predicting the herd immunity threshold during an outbreak: a recursive approach.

PloS One
Nathan T Georgette

Abstract

The objective was to develop a novel algorithm that can predict, based on field survey data, the minimum vaccination coverage required to reduce the mean number of infections per infectious individual to less than one (the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold or ORIT) from up to six days in the advance. First, the relationship between the rate of immunization and the ORIT was analyzed to establish a link. This relationship served as the basis for the development of a recursive algorithm that predicts the ORIT using survey data from two consecutive days. The algorithm was tested using data from two actual measles outbreaks. The prediction day difference (PDD) was defined as the number of days between the second day of data input and the day of the prediction. The effects of different PDDs on the prediction error were analyzed, and it was found that a PDD of 5 minimized the error in the prediction. In addition, I developed a model demonstrating the relationship between changes in the vaccination coverage and changes in the individual reproduction number. The predictive algorithm for the ORIT generates a viable prediction of the minimum number of vaccines required to stop an outbreak in real time. With this knowledge, the outb...Continue Reading

References

Jan 1, 1992·American Journal of Public Health·K M EmmonsM E Kane
Jan 1, 1992·The Journal of School Health·M L Pahnos
Mar 1, 1991·American Journal of Public Health·B S HershW A Orenstein
Jul 1, 1985·American Journal of Public Health·C C WhiteW A Orenstein
Mar 1, 1995·Radiographics : a Review Publication of the Radiological Society of North America, Inc·J B Kruskal, G G Hartnell
Jan 1, 1993·Epidemiologic Reviews·P E Fine
Jan 8, 1999·Parasite : Journal De La Société Française De Parasitologie·O JoussonJ Pawlowski
Apr 18, 2000·Lancet·S Ozsoylu
Nov 15, 2000·European Journal of Epidemiology·T J John, R Samuel
Dec 13, 2003·Vaccine·Yash Paul
Nov 22, 2005·International Journal of Epidemiology·Terri B HydeMark J Papania
Jan 5, 2006·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Robin NandyLisa Cairns
Aug 5, 2006·American Journal of Epidemiology·Simon CauchemezAlain-Jacques Valleron
May 4, 2007·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·J Wallinga, M Lipsitch
May 12, 2007·Nihon rinsho. Japanese journal of clinical medicine·Kihei Terada
May 17, 2007·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·R F GraisB T Grenfell
Oct 6, 2007·Australian Family Physician·Kath O'Connor
Dec 20, 2007·Genetics in Medicine : Official Journal of the American College of Medical Genetics·Mugdha ThakurDavid B Matchar
May 15, 2008·PloS One·Luís M A Bettencourt, Ruy M Ribeiro
Jul 11, 2008·Analytical Sciences : the International Journal of the Japan Society for Analytical Chemistry·Tomás TrojekLadislav Musílek

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Feb 14, 2015·Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology : the Official Journal of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology·R K DhillonM D Kilby

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

RPORITA

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.