Predicting the local COVID-19 outbreak around the world with meteorological conditions: a model-based qualitative study

BMJ Open
Biqing ChenXuejun Zhu

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the relationship between daily weather and transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2, and to develop a generalised model for future prediction of the COVID-19 spreading rate for a certain area with meteorological factors. A retrospective, qualitative study. We collected 382 596 records of weather data with four meteorological factors, namely, average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and air visibility, and 15 192 records of epidemic data with daily new confirmed case counts (1 587 209 confirmed cases in total) in nearly 500 areas worldwide from 20 January 2020 to 9 April 2020. Epidemic data were modelled against weather data to find a model that could best predict the future outbreak. Significant correlation of the daily new confirmed case count with the weather 3 to 7 days ago were found. SARS-CoV-2 is easy to spread under weather conditions of average temperature at 5 to 15°C, relative humidity at 70% to 80%, wind speed at 1.5 to 4.5 m/s and air visibility less than 10 statute miles. A short-term model with these four meteorological variables was derived to predict the daily increase in COVID-19 cases; and a long-term model using temperature to predict the pandemic in the next week to month was...Continue Reading

References

Oct 24, 2007·PLoS Pathogens·Anice C LowenPeter Palese
May 16, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Eriko KudoAkiko Iwasaki
Jan 25, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Na ZhuUNKNOWN China Novel Coronavirus Investigating and Research Team
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Citations

Jan 18, 2021·Anaesthesia Critical Care & Pain Medicine·Renaud PiarrouxStanislas Rebaudet
Mar 5, 2021·Waste Management & Research : the Journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA·Saverio BellizziAntonio Manca
Mar 26, 2021·Journal of Environmental Management·Turki M HabeebullahEssam A Morsy
Mar 27, 2021·Environmental Microbiology·Ruibang LuoAntoine Danchin
Aug 15, 2021·Virology Journal·Jalen SinghKaren Mossman
Aug 17, 2021·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Hu-Li ZhengWei Wu

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