DOI: 10.1101/458794Nov 7, 2018Paper

Predicting The Spatial Dynamics Of Wolbachia Infections In Aedes aegypti Arbovirus Vector Populations In Heterogeneous Landscapes

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Penelope A HancockH Charles J Godfray

Abstract

O_LIA promising strategy for reducing the transmission of dengue and other arboviral human diseases by Aedes aegypti mosquito vector populations involves field introductions of the endosymbiotic bacteria Wolbachia. Wolbachia infections inhibit viral transmission by the mosquito, and can spread between mosquito hosts to reach high frequencies in the vector population. Wolbachia spreads by maternal transmission, and spread dynamics can be variable and highly dependent on natural mosquito population dynamics, population structure and fitness components.\nC_LIO_LIWe develop a mathematical model of an Ae. aegypti metapopulation that incorporates empirically validated relationships describing density-dependent mosquito fitness components. We assume that density dependence relationships differ across subpopulations, and construct heterogeneous landscapes for which model-predicted patterns of variation in mosquito abundance and demography approximate those observed in field populations. We then simulate Wolbachia release strategies similar to that used in field trials.\nC_LIO_LIWe show that our model can produce rates of spatial spread of Wolbachia similar to those observed following field releases.\nC_LIO_LIWe then investigate how dif...Continue Reading

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