Predicting West Nile virus transmission in North American bird communities using phylogenetic mixed effects models and eBird citizen science data

Parasites & Vectors
Morgan P Kain, Benjamin M Bolker

Abstract

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted disease of birds that has caused bird population declines and can spill over into human populations. Previous research has identified bird species that infect a large fraction of the total pool of infected mosquitoes and correlate with human infection risk; however, these analyses cover small spatial regions and cannot be used to predict transmission in bird communities in which these species are rare or absent. Here we present a mechanistic model for WNV transmission that predicts WNV spread (R0) in any bird community in North America by scaling up from the physiological responses of individual birds to transmission at the level of the community. We predict unmeasured bird species' responses to infection using phylogenetic imputation, based on these species' phylogenetic relationships with bird species with measured responses. We focused our analysis on Texas, USA, because it is among the states with the highest total incidence of WNV in humans and is well sampled by birders in the eBird database. Spatio-temporal patterns: WNV transmission is primarily driven by temperature variation across time and space, and secondarily by bird community composition. In Texas, we predicted WNV ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 10, 2019·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ellie Sherrard-SmithThomas S Churcher
Mar 2, 2021·Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries·Steven J CookeAndy J Danylchuk
May 15, 2021·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Johanna J YoungCéline M Gossner
Jun 16, 2021·Acta Tropica·Anna PapaSpiros Mourelatos
Oct 13, 2021·Current Biology : CB·Caroline K GliddenErin A Mordecai

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
GAM

Software Mentioned

Google Scholar
R
R package MuMIn
lme4
rstan
mgcv
Stan
eBird
DendroPy

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