Prediction of abstinence from ethanol in alcoholic recipients following liver transplantation

Hepatology : Official Journal of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases
P F FosterJ W Williams

Abstract

The prediction of abstinence from ethanol may be crucial to the optimal selection of liver transplantation candidates with alcoholism. Of 84 consecutive end-stage alcoholic patients who underwent transplantation (1986-1994) at our institution, we analyzed 63 long-surviving recipients for pretransplantation variables to predict posttransplantation abstinence (follow-up: 49.3 +/- 21 mo). Thirty-three pretransplantation variables were reviewed from our transplantation data base and supplemented and confirmed with interviews with recipients. The psycho-social inclusion criteria included the following: patient recognition of alcoholism, a domicile, an occupation, and at least one close personal relationship. The incidence of abstinence from ethanol was (50/63) 79%. A logistic regression of the 33 variables in conjunction with our above inclusion criteria accurately predicted abstinence (90% accuracy, chi2 model, P < .00001) based on the absence of previous history of any illicit drug use (Drug Use: yes = 1/no = 0), the presence of an active, personal life insurance policy (Life Ins: yes = 1/no = 0), number of alcoholic sisters (ETOH-SIS), and the length of pretransplantation abstinence (PRE-TRANS-ABS, mos): Prob. of abstinence = 1/1...Continue Reading

Citations

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