Prediction of Cardiac and Noncardiac Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Circulation. Cardiovascular Interventions
Daniel B SpoonRajiv Gulati

Abstract

Current risk models for predicting long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention are restricted to all-cause mortality. We sought to develop novel risk models for the prediction of cardiac and noncardiac mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention. We retrospectively evaluated patients who underwent index percutaneous coronary intervention at Mayo Clinic from 2003 to 2008. Long-term deaths were ascertained through scheduled prospective surveillance. Cause of death was determined via telephone interviews, medical records, and autopsy reports. Fine and Gray extension of Cox proportional hazards models was used to model cause-specific cumulative incidence. Candidate variables and interactions were chosen a priori, without variable selection methods. Resulting models were mapped to an integer-based risk score. The study comprised 6636 patients followed up over a median of 62 months (25th, 75th percentiles: 45, 77 months). There were 1488 deaths, 518 (35%) cardiac, 938 (63%) noncardiac, and 32 (2%) unknown. The 5-year predicted cardiac mortality ranged from 0.6% to 97%, with a corrected c-statistic of 0.82. Risk factors for cardiac death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, and history of congestiv...Continue Reading

References

Jun 1, 1992·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology·R A DeyoM A Ciol
May 29, 1999·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·J L Schafer
Aug 21, 2010·The American Journal of Cardiology·Gabriel MaluendaRon Waksman
Sep 23, 2010·Circulation. Cardiovascular Interventions·Amanda StebbinsUNKNOWN Assessment of Pexelizumab in Acute Myocardial Infarction (APEX AMI Investigators)
May 15, 2013·Journal of the American College of Cardiology·Bhuvnesh AggarwalMehdi H Shishehbor
Jan 16, 2014·Circulation. Cardiovascular Interventions·Chuntao WuEdward L Hannan
Feb 12, 2014·Circulation·Philippe Gabriel Steg, Adrian Piers Cheong
Feb 12, 2014·Circulation·Daniel B SpoonRajiv Gulati
Nov 18, 2014·The New England Journal of Medicine·Laura MauriUNKNOWN DAPT Study Investigators

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