Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Changyu FanYufan Wang

Abstract

After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013-2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan's migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan's migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan's total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan's migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3-4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as...Continue Reading

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