Prediction of psychosis in prodrome: development and validation of a simple, personalized risk calculator

Psychological Medicine
TianHong ZhangSHARP (ShangHai At Risk for Psychosis) Study Group

Abstract

This study aim to derive and validate a simple and well-performing risk calculator (RC) for predicting psychosis in individual patients at clinical high risk (CHR). From the ongoing ShangHai-At-Risk-for-Psychosis (SHARP) program, 417 CHR cases were identified based on the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms (SIPS), of whom 349 had at least 1-year follow-up assessment. Of these 349 cases, 83 converted to psychosis. Logistic regression was used to build a multivariate model to predict conversion. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to test the effectiveness of the SIPS-RC. Second, an independent sample of 100 CHR subjects was recruited based on an identical baseline and follow-up procedures to validate the performance of the SIPS-RC. Four predictors (each based on a subset of SIPS-based items) were used to construct the SIPS-RC: (1) functional decline; (2) positive symptoms (unusual thoughts, suspiciousness); (3) negative symptoms (social anhedonia, expression of emotion, ideational richness); and (4) general symptoms (dysphoric mood). The SIPS-RC showed moderate discrimination of subsequent transition to psychosis with an AUC of 0.744 (p < 0.001). A risk estimate of 25% or high...Continue Reading

Associated Clinical Trials

References

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Citations

May 1, 2019·Current Psychiatry Reports·Jean AddingtonMohammed Shakeel Kalathil
Nov 13, 2019·The American Journal of Psychiatry·Diana O PerkinsScott W Woods
Sep 6, 2019·Archives of Women's Mental Health·Marlene RosenFrauke Schultze-Lutter
Jul 11, 2020·Schizophrenia Bulletin·James M GoldVijay A Mittal
May 16, 2019·Zhurnal nevrologii i psikhiatrii imeni S.S. Korsakova·A N Barkhatova
Nov 5, 2020·The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry·TianHong ZhangJiJun Wang
Jan 7, 2020·Biological Psychiatry : Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuroimaging·Michelle A WorthingtonTyrone D Cannon
Jan 19, 2021·Journal of Psychiatric Research·Andrea Pelletier-BaldelliVijay A Mittal
May 6, 2021·Early Intervention in Psychiatry·Antonio PretiMauro Percudani
May 19, 2021·World Psychiatry : Official Journal of the World Psychiatric Association (WPA)·Paolo Fusar-PoliJohn P A Ioannidis

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