Prediction of sudden cardiac death in Japanese heart failure patients: international validation of the Seattle Proportional Risk Model.

Europace : European Pacing, Arrhythmias, and Cardiac Electrophysiology : Journal of the Working Groups on Cardiac Pacing, Arrhythmias, and Cardiac Cellular Electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology
Ryoma FukuokaTsutomu Yoshikawa

Abstract

Heart failure (HF) is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study sought to demonstrate the incidence of SCD within a multicentre Japanese registry of HF patients hospitalized for acute decompensation, and externally validate the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM). We consecutively registered 2240 acute HF patients from academic institutions in Tokyo, Japan. The discrimination and calibration of the SPRM were assessed by the c-statistic, Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, and visual plotting among non-survivors. Patient-level SPRM predictions and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) benefit [ICD estimated hazard ratio (HR), derived from the Cox proportional hazards model in the Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT)] was calculated. During the 2-year follow-up, 356 deaths (15.9%) occurred, which included 76 adjudicated SCDs (3.4%) and 280 non-SCDs (12.5%). The SPRM showed acceptable discrimination [c-index = 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.70], similar to that of original SPRM-derivation cohort. The calibration plot showed reasonable conformance. Among HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF; < 40%), SPRM showed improved discrimination compared with the ICD el...Continue Reading

References

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Feb 13, 2018·European Journal of Heart Failure·Eiichi AkiyamaUNKNOWN GREAT (Global Research on Acute Conditions Team) Network
May 23, 2018·Clinical Research in Cardiology : Official Journal of the German Cardiac Society·Yasuyuki ShiraishiJohn G F Cleland
Aug 14, 2018·Journal of Cardiac Failure·Yasuyuki ShiraishiTsutomu Yoshikawa
Jul 16, 2019·JACC. Heart Failure·Søren Lund KristensenJens Jakob Thune

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Citations

Jun 30, 2021·Heart Failure Reviews·Grigorios GiamouzisFilippos Triposkiadis

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