Predictions instead of panics: the framework and utility of systematic forecasting of novel psychoactive drug trends

The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse
John M Stogner

Abstract

Countless novel psychoactive substances have been sensationally described in the last 15 years by the media and academia. Though some become significant issues, most fail to become a substantial threat. The diversity and breadth of these potential problem substances has led policymakers, law enforcement officers, and healthcare providers alike to feel overwhelmed and underprepared for dealing with novel drugs. Inadequacies in training and preparation may be remedied by a response that is more selective and more proactive. The current manuscript seeks to clarify how to most efficiently forecast the "success" of each newly introduced novel psychoactive substance in order to allow for more efficient decision making and proactive resource allocation. A review of literature, published case reports, and legal studies was used to determine which factors were most closely linked to use of a novel drug spreading. Following the development of a forecasting framework, examples of its use are provided. The resulting five-step forecast method relies on assessments of the availability of a potential user base, the costs--legal and otherwise--of the drug relative to existent analogues, the subjective experience, the substance's dependence pot...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jan 29, 2016·Substance Abuse : Official Publication of the Association for Medical Education and Research in Substance Abuse·Corey J KellerJong H Yoon
Sep 26, 2015·The American Journal of Drug and Alcohol Abuse·David A Gorelick, Sterling McPherson
Jun 25, 2016·Journal of Analytical Toxicology·Justin PoklisJulia Pearson
Dec 19, 2017·The International Journal on Drug Policy·Luther ElliottEloise Dunlap

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