Predictive analytics in health care: how can we know it works?

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA
Ben Van CalsterGary S Collins

Abstract

There is increasing awareness that the methodology and findings of research should be transparent. This includes studies using artificial intelligence to develop predictive algorithms that make individualized diagnostic or prognostic risk predictions. We argue that it is paramount to make the algorithm behind any prediction publicly available. This allows independent external validation, assessment of performance heterogeneity across settings and over time, and algorithm refinement or updating. Online calculators and apps may aid uptake if accompanied with sufficient information. For algorithms based on "black box" machine learning methods, software for algorithm implementation is a must. Hiding algorithms for commercial exploitation is unethical, because there is no possibility to assess whether algorithms work as advertised or to monitor when and how algorithms are updated. Journals and funders should demand maximal transparency for publications on predictive algorithms, and clinical guidelines should only recommend publicly available algorithms.

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Citations

Nov 16, 2019·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·Leslie Lenert
Feb 13, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Jessica MorleyBen Goldacre
Apr 9, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Laure WynantsMaarten van Smeden
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Sep 11, 2020·BMJ : British Medical Journal·Laure WynantsBen Van Calster
Feb 26, 2021·Korean Journal of Radiology : Official Journal of the Korean Radiological Society·Seong Ho ParkJeong Sik Byeon
Jan 5, 2021·Anesthesiology·Sabri SoussiYannick Le Manach
Mar 29, 2021·Computers in Biology and Medicine·Jussi Tohka, Mark van Gils
May 20, 2021·Applied Clinical Informatics·Xinran LiuAtul J Butte
May 29, 2021·The Lancet. Digital Health·Chrianna BharatLouisa Degenhardt
Dec 29, 2020·Annals of the American Thoracic Society·Karandeep SinghBrahmajee K Nallamothu
Jul 24, 2020·Nature Communications·Daniel C CastroBen Glocker
Aug 19, 2021·Applied Clinical Informatics·Rod L WalkerGregory E Simon

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