Predictive Factors and Risk Mapping for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Kenya

PloS One
Peninah MunyuaM Kariuki Njenga

Abstract

To-date, Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have occurred in 38 of the 69 administrative districts in Kenya. Using surveillance records collected between 1951 and 2007, we determined the risk of exposure and outcome of an RVF outbreak, examined the ecological and climatic factors associated with the outbreaks, and used these data to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. Exposure to RVF was evaluated as the proportion of the total outbreak years that each district was involved in prior epizootics, whereas risk of outcome was assessed as severity of observed disease in humans and animals for each district. A probability-impact weighted score (1 to 9) of the combined exposure and outcome risks was used to classify a district as high (score ≥ 5) or medium (score ≥2 - <5) risk, a classification that was subsequently subjected to expert group analysis for final risk level determination at the division levels (total = 391 divisions). Divisions that never reported RVF disease (score < 2) were classified as low risk. Using data from the 2006/07 RVF outbreak, the predictive risk factors for an RVF outbreak were identified. The predictive probabilities from the model were further used to develop an RVF risk map for Kenya. The final output was...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jan 4, 2017·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·B BettD Grace
Mar 6, 2019·PloS One·Musa SekamatteCaterina M Scoglio
Jul 20, 2018·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Giovanni Lo IaconoJames L N Wood
Aug 5, 2017·Scientific Reports·Rashida LathanJean-Jacques Panthier
Mar 9, 2017·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Hippolyte AffognonMagnus Evander
Jun 7, 2017·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·David W ReddingKate E Jones
Apr 25, 2020·BMC Public Health·Peninah M MunyuaMarc-Alain Widdowson
Aug 5, 2020·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Abdala HassanPeninah Munyua
Oct 4, 2020·Health & Place·Ziheng SunMariana Casal

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