Predictive model of axillary lymph node involvement in women with small invasive breast carcinoma: axillary metastases in breast carcinoma

Cancer
Caroline MartinMichel Velten

Abstract

Axillary lymph node involvement (ALNI) remains the most accurate predictive factor for recurrence risk and survival in patients with invasive breast carcinoma (IBC) and is an essential element in therapeutic decisions. However, axillary dissection (AD) is responsible for several side effects and is now discussed in small IBC. The objective of this study was to define a predictive model of ALNI by using clinical and histologic variables available before surgery. The authors studied 795 cases of IBC (T0, T1, T2 < or = 4 cm; N0; M0) treated between 1980 and 1997 by conservative surgery and radiation therapy. All cases had axillary dissection with at least 10 lymph nodes removed. A stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed to build a predictive model of ALNI. The authors then used the jackknife resampling technique to produce unbiased estimates of the probabilities of ALNI along with their confidence intervals. The global ALNI rate was 25.7%. The final predictive model included clinical tumor size, location, and histologic subtype and grade as variables independently associated with ALNI. The estimated probability of ALNI varied from 6% to 45%, according to case characteristics for these variables. These results show that...Continue Reading

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