PMID: 9003260Jan 1, 1997Paper

Predictive model to identify trauma patients with blood alcohol concentrations > or = 50 mg/dl

The Journal of Trauma
C A SoderstromA Lowenfels

Abstract

To develop a simple model for identification of trauma patients who are likely to have a blood alcohol concentration > or = 50 mg/dL (BAC + 50). Demographic, clinical, and BAC data were collected from the clinical trauma registry and toxicology data base at a Level I trauma center. Logistic regression was used to analyze data from 11,206 patients to develop a predictive model, which was validated using a subsequent cohort of 3,523 patients. In the model development cohort, alcohol was detected in the blood of 3,180 BAC-tested patients (28.7%), of whom 91.2% had a BAC + 50 status. Preliminary analysis revealed associations between a BAC + 50 status and sex, age, race, injury type (intentional vs. unintentional), and time of injury (night vs. day and weekend vs. weekday). A predictive model using four attributes (sex and injury type) identified patients at low, medium, and high risk for being BAC + 50. The model was validated using the second group of patients. Injured patients with a high probability of being alcohol positive can be identified using a simple scoring system based on readily available demographic and clinical information.

References

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Citations

Oct 9, 2001·Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry·F J Stoddard, G Saxe
Jan 23, 1998·Alcoholism, Clinical and Experimental Research·A J Treno, H D Holder
Nov 7, 2001·Emergency Medicine Journal : EMJ·P A RustG Rottenberg
Jul 27, 1999·American Journal of Physical Medicine & Rehabilitation·W O McKinleyJ S Kreutzer
Oct 24, 2002·Pediatric Emergency Care·Suzanne M ColbyPeter M Monti
Nov 5, 1999·Alcoholism, Clinical and Experimental Research·A J Treno
Oct 13, 2006·The Journal of Trauma·Gabriel E RybPatricia Dischinger
Nov 13, 2008·The Journal of Trauma·Gabriel E RybCarl A Soderstrom

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