Predictive modeling: potential application in prevention services

American Journal of Preventive Medicine
Moira WilsonAnthony G Simmers

Abstract

In 2012, the New Zealand Government announced a proposal to introduce predictive risk models (PRMs) to help professionals identify and assess children at risk of abuse or neglect as part of a preventive early intervention strategy, subject to further feasibility study and trialing. The purpose of this study is to examine technical feasibility and predictive validity of the proposal, focusing on a PRM that would draw on population-wide linked administrative data to identify newborn children who are at high priority for intensive preventive services. Data analysis was conducted in 2013 based on data collected in 2000-2012. A PRM was developed using data for children born in 2010 and externally validated for children born in 2007, examining outcomes to age 5 years. Performance of the PRM in predicting administratively recorded substantiations of maltreatment was good compared to the performance of other tools reviewed in the literature, both overall, and for indigenous Māori children. Some, but not all, of the children who go on to have recorded substantiations of maltreatment could be identified early using PRMs. PRMs should be considered as a potential complement to, rather than a replacement for, professional judgment. Trials a...Continue Reading

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Jan 16, 2013·Child Abuse & Neglect·Emily Putnam-HornsteinMichelle Johnson-Motoyama

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Citations

Sep 23, 2016·BMC Medical Research Methodology·Laura SchummersJennifer A Hutcheon
Oct 30, 2019·PloS One·Alex JamesMichael J Plank
Aug 31, 2020·Child Abuse & Neglect·John D FlukeLeemoy Weaver

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