[Predictive models of the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain with Gompertz curves].

Gaceta sanitaria
Pablo Sánchez-Villegas, Antonio Daponte Codina

Abstract

During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of the crisis. The present work aims to describe the methodology used to develop predictive models of infections and deaths for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain, based on Gompertz curves. The methodology is applied to the country as a whole and to each of its Autonomous Communities. Based on the official data available on the date of this work, and through the models described, we estimate a total of around 240.000 infected and 25.000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. At a national level, we forecast the end of the epidemic between June and July 2020.

References

Jun 1, 1990·Applied and Environmental Microbiology·M H ZwieteringK van 't Riet
Dec 31, 2015·PloS One·Christian RitzDaniel Gerhard
Oct 23, 2016·Epidemics·Joceline Lega, Heidi E Brown

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations


❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

R

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.