Predictors of neonatal mortality: development and validation of prognostic models using prospective data from rural Bangladesh.

BMJ Global Health
Farhad A KhanAlain B Labrique

Abstract

To assess the extent to which maternal histories of newborn danger signs independently or combined with birth weight and/or gestational age (GA) can capture and/or predict postsecond day (age>48 hours) neonatal death. Data from a cluster-randomised trial conducted in rural Bangladesh were split into development and validation sets. The prompted recall of danger signs and birth weight measurements were collected within 48 hours postchildbirth. Maternally recalled danger signs included cyanosis (any part of the infant's body was blue at birth), non-cephalic presentation (part other than head came out first at birth), lethargy (weak or no arm/leg movement and/or cry at birth), trouble suckling (infant unable to suckle/feed normally in the 2 days after birth or before death, collected 1-month postpartum or from verbal autopsy). Last menstrual period was collected at maternal enrolment early in pregnancy. Singleton newborns surviving 2 days past childbirth were eligible for analysis. Prognostic multivariable models were developed and internally validated. Recalling ≥1 sign of lethargy, cyanosis, non-cephalic presentation or trouble suckling identified postsecond day neonatal death with 65.3% sensitivity, 60.8% specificity, 2.1% posi...Continue Reading

References

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Clinical Trials Mentioned

NCT00860470

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Stata

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