Preparing for a future COVID-19 wave: insights and limitations from a data-driven evaluation of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Germany

Scientific Reports
Ashwin AravindakshanAshutosh Nayak

Abstract

To contain the COVID-19 pandemic, governments introduced strict Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) that restricted movement, public gatherings, national and international travel, and shut down large parts of the economy. Yet, the impact of the enforcement and subsequent loosening of these policies on the spread of COVID-19 is not well understood. Accordingly, we measure the impact of NPIs on mitigating disease spread by exploiting the spatio-temporal variations in policy measures across the 16 states of Germany. While this quasi-experiment does not allow for causal identification, each policy's effect on reducing disease spread provides meaningful insights. We adapt the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model for disease propagation to include data on daily confirmed cases, interstate movement, and social distancing. By combining the model with measures of policy contributions on mobility reduction, we forecast scenarios for relaxing various types of NPIs. Our model finds that in Germany policies that mandated contact restrictions (e.g., movement in public space limited to two persons or people co-living), closure of educational institutions (e.g., schools), and retail outlet closures are associated with the sharpest d...Continue Reading

References

Jan 25, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Na ZhuUNKNOWN China Novel Coronavirus Investigating and Research Team
Jan 30, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Qun LiZijian Feng
Mar 14, 2020·Lancet·Roy M AndersonT Déirdre Hollingsworth
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Jun 12, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Seth G BenzellChristos Nicolaides
Aug 14, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Abiel SebhatuStaffan I Lindberg

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Citations

Jul 25, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Lukas ReitzleChristin Heidemann
Jul 28, 2021·The Journal of Infection·Lama Bou-KarroumCharbel El Bcheraoui

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Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter ( EAKF )
Google Trends
Tableau

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