Abstract
From a survey of notifications of tuberculosis in England and Wales it is estimated that each 100,000 BCG vaccination of school-children in 1966-71 prevented 15 notifications of persons aged 15-19 years in 1973. Making allowance for the declining infection risk, it is probable that each 100,000 vaccinations in 1966-71 will eventually prevent about 133 notifications in the 15 years following vaccination. It is estimated that one notification of tuberculosis will be prevented by 750 vaccinations given in 1968, by 1,500 vaccinations in 1973, by 3,000 vaccinations in 1978, and by 5,000-10,000 vaccinations in the 1980's.
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