Previsão de Irradiação Solar em Sistemas Fotovoltaicos Usando Análise de Séries Temporais

Daniel BarbosaLuciana Martinez

Abstract

Esse trabalho consiste na aplicação da análise de séries temporais para a previsão de irradiação solar em sistemas de geração fotovoltaica. A importância deste tipo de previsão é favorecer o planejamento, a operação e a rotina de manutenção destes tipos de sistemas, assim como servir de base para estudos de viabilidade e expansão da geração solar. Devido à característica estocástica e o comportamento periódico dos dados de irradiação solar, um modelo periódico auto-regressivo foi considerado, cujos parâmetros foram ajustados utilizando-se o método da Máxima Verossimilhança, com base em medições horárias de irradiação, realizadas em um período de um ano. A fim de se analisar o desempenho do método de previsão, foram realizadas previsões de dias com diferentes intensidades de irradiação solar. Os resultados mostraram um bom desempenho do modelo periódico auto-regressivo na previsão dos dados considerados.

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