Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix-Based Simulation Approach

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Jianfeng Zhou, Genserik Reniers

Abstract

Major industrial accidents occurring at so-called major hazard installations may cause domino accidents which are among the most destructive industrial accidents existing at present. As there may be many hazard installations in an area, a primary accident scenario may potentially propagate from one installation to another, and correlations exist in probability calculations of domino effects. In addition, during the propagation of a domino effect, accidents of diverse types may occur, some of them having a synergistic effect, while others do not. These characteristics make the analytical formulation of domino accidents very complex. In this work, a simple matrix-based modeling approach for domino effect analysis is proposed. Matrices can be used to represent the mutual influences of different escalation vectors between installations. On this basis, an analysis approach for accident propagation as well as a simulation-based algorithm for probability calculation of accidents and accident levels is provided. The applicability and flexibility of this approach is discussed while applying it to estimate domino probabilities in a case study.

References

Apr 10, 2004·Journal of Hazardous Materials·Valerio Cozzani, Ernesto Salzano
Apr 10, 2004·Journal of Hazardous Materials·Valerio Cozzani, Ernesto Salzano
Aug 17, 2005·Journal of Hazardous Materials·Valerio CozzaniSeverino Zanelli
Sep 15, 2005·Journal of Hazardous Materials·Valerio CozzaniErnesto Salzano
Mar 11, 2008·Journal of Hazardous Materials·Zhang Mingguang, Jiang Juncheng
Feb 6, 2009·Journal of Hazardous Materials·Genserik ReniersSoudan Karel
Oct 13, 2009·Accident; Analysis and Prevention·Gabriele LanducciValerio Cozzani
Jul 14, 2010·Journal of Hazardous Materials·Bahman AbdolhamidzadehS A Abbasi
Aug 17, 2010·Journal of Hazardous Materials·R M DarbraJoaquim Casal
Jun 12, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Nima KhakzadValerio Cozzani

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