Probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 deaths with the progression rate from pneumonia to ARDS: An open-data-based global study.

Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan Yi Zhi
Wei-Jung ChangKing-Jen Chang

Abstract

Cumulative data of case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19 varied across countries. A forecasting model generated based on detailed information from three countries during the initial phase of pandemic showed that progression rates from pneumonia to ARDS (PRPA) varied by country and were highly associated with CFR. We aim to elucidate the impact of the PRPA on COVID-19 deaths in different periods of pandemic. We used the country-based, real-time global COVID-19 data through GitHub repository to estimate PRPA on the first period (January to June), second period (July to September), and third period (October to December) in 2020. PRPA was used for predicting COVID-19 deaths and assessing the reduction in deaths in subsequent two periods. The estimated PRPA varied widely from 0.38% to 51.36%, with an average of 15.99% in the first period. The PRPA declined to 8.44% and 6.35% in the second and third period. The CFR declined stepwise and was 4.94%, 2.61%, and 1.96%, respectively. Some countries exhibited a decrease in the PRPA from the second to the third period whereas others showed the opposite, particularly where selected viral mutants were prevalent. Overall, the number of observed deaths was lower than that of the predicted death...Continue Reading

References

Jan 30, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Qun LiZijian Feng
Feb 23, 2020·The Lancet Infectious Diseases·Ensheng DongLauren Gardner
Feb 29, 2020·The New England Journal of Medicine·Wei-Jie GuanUNKNOWN China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19
Mar 30, 2020·The Lancet. Public Health·Benedetta ArmocidaEduardo Missoni
Apr 19, 2020·Science·John B Moore, Carl H June
Feb 18, 2021·Nature Communications·Patrick SchwabStefan Bauer
Mar 5, 2021·Science·Nicholas G DaviesW John Edmunds

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Citations

Jun 13, 2021·Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan Yi Zhi·Chi-Ling ChenSam Li-Sheng Chen

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Software Mentioned

GitHub
SAS

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