Probability estimation of a Carrington-like geomagnetic storm

Scientific Reports
David MoriñaÁlvaro Corral

Abstract

Intense geomagnetic storms can cause severe damage to electrical systems and communications. This work proposes a counting process with Weibull inter-occurrence times in order to estimate the probability of extreme geomagnetic events. It is found that the scale parameter of the inter-occurrence time distribution grows exponentially with the absolute value of the intensity threshold defining the storm, whereas the shape parameter keeps rather constant. The model is able to forecast the probability of occurrence of an event for a given intensity threshold; in particular, the probability of occurrence on the next decade of an extreme event of a magnitude comparable or larger than the well-known Carrington event of 1859 is explored, and estimated to be between 0.46% and 1.88% (with a 95% confidence), a much lower value than those reported in the existing literature.

References

Oct 4, 2003·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Alvaro Corral
Aug 11, 2005·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Eduardo G Altmann, Holger Kantz
Feb 21, 2006·Physical Review Letters·L de ArcangelisM Nicodemi
Feb 21, 2006·Physical Review Letters·Marco BaiesiAttilio L Stella
Mar 21, 2008·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Alvaro CorralRosa Lasaponara
May 21, 2010·Physical Review Letters·M BottiglieriE Lippiello
Sep 26, 2012·Journal of Radiological Protection : Official Journal of the Society for Radiological Protection·J Swanson, L Kheifets
Feb 4, 2014·PloS One·Jeff AlstottDietmar Plenz
Oct 30, 2014·Origins of Life and Evolution of the Biosphere : the Journal of the International Society for the Study of the Origin of Life·C Muller
Jun 13, 2015·Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics·Anna DelucaÁlvaro Corral
May 11, 2016·Clinical Neurology and Neurosurgery·Panagiotis PapathanasopoulosOdysseas Kargiotis
Oct 25, 2016·Clinical Neurology and Neurosurgery·Seyed Aidin Sajedi, Fahimeh Abdollahi
Jan 6, 2017·Scientific Reports·Isabel Serra, Álvaro Corral
Mar 31, 2017·International Journal of Biometeorology·T Azcárate, B Mendoza
Jun 22, 2017·Bioelectromagnetics·Viacheslav V Krylov

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations


❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

R survi
R package KScorrect
R package car
R

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.