Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.

Pancreatology : Official Journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et Al.]
Mary Linton B PetersPari V Pandharipande

Abstract

To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) METHODS: We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential futur...Continue Reading

Citations

May 18, 2020·BMJ Open Gastroenterology·Muhammad Nadeem YousafJames J Farrell
Nov 30, 2018·World Journal of Gastroenterology : WJG·Andrew McGuiganR Stephen McCain
Mar 2, 2021·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Brechtje D M KoopmannInge M C M de Kok
Aug 23, 2020·Biochimica Et Biophysica Acta. Reviews on Cancer·Matthew HaddenYogambha Ramaswamy
Apr 4, 2021·Journal of Clinical Medicine·Margaret G Keane, Elham Afghani
Jul 10, 2021·World Journal of Gastroenterology : WJG·Michail GalanopoulosChristos Liatsos
Oct 23, 2021·Gastroenterology·Kasper A OverbeekUNKNOWN International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium

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