Projected diabetes prevalence and related costs in three North American urban centres (2015-2040)

Public Health
Ulrik Haagen PantonSimón Barquera

Abstract

To explore the future implications of diabetes for urban centres, we projected the prevalence and cost of diabetes from 2015 to 2040 in three very different North American cities: Houston, Mexico City and Vancouver. We use a simple demographic transition model using existing sources to project future prevalence and financial burden of diabetes. Based on data from each individual city, projections of the diabetes prevalence and financial burden were created through a three-stage transition model where the likelihood of moving across stages is based on incidence rates for age and gender groups. According to our projections from 2015 to 2040, diabetes prevalence will approximately double in Houston to 1,051,900 people and in Vancouver to 379,778 people and increase by >1 million to 3,080,013 people in Mexico City. Prevalence rates will increase from 8.5% to 11.7% in Houston, from 9.1% to 11.9% in Mexico City and from 7.2% to 11.3% in Vancouver. Associated costs will rise 1.9-fold to $11.5 billion (in US dollars) in Houston, 1.6-fold to $2.8 billion in Mexico City and 2.1-fold to $2.6 billion in Vancouver. Unless actions are taken to decrease its incidence, diabetes is expected to increasingly contribute to the societal and financi...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 21, 2020·Translational Research : the Journal of Laboratory and Clinical Medicine·Marianne BerdugoFrancine Behar-Cohen

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