DOI: 10.1101/490508Dec 7, 2018Paper

Projected expansion in climatic suitability for Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas Disease, and five widespread Triatoma species by 2070: the role of climate change on infectious diseases

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Matthew NicholsMichelle L Haynie


The vector-borne parasite Trypanosoma cruzi infects seven million individuals globally and causes chronic cardiomyopathy and gastrointestinal diseases. Recently, T. cruzi has emerged in the southern United States. It is crucial for disease surveillance efforts to detail regions that present favorable climatic conditions for T. cruzi and vector establishment. We used MaxEnt to develop an ecological niche model for T. cruzi and five widespread Triatoma vectors based on 546 published localities within the United States. We modeled regions of current potential T. cruzi and Triatoma distribution and then regions projected to have suitable climatic conditions by 2070. Regions with suitable climatic conditions for the study organisms are predicted to increase within the United States. Our findings agree with the hypothesis that climate change will facilitate the expansion of tropical diseases throughout temperate regions and suggest climate change will influence the expansion of T. cruzi and Triatoma vectors in the United States.

Related Concepts

Cell Growth
Disease Vectors
Gastrointestinal Diseases
Trypanosoma cruzi
Chagas Disease
Tropical Ulcer, NOS
Infection Surveillance
Pharmacologic Substance

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