Projecting diabetes prevalence among Mexicans aged 50 years and older: the Future Elderly Model-Mexico (FEM-Mexico)

BMJ Open
Cesar González-GonzálezRebeca Wong

Abstract

Diabetes has been growing as a major health problem and a significant burden on the population and on health systems of developing countries like Mexico that are also ageing fast. The goal of the study was to estimate the future prevalence of diabetes among Mexico's older adults to assess the current and future health and economic burden of diabetes. A simulation study using longitudinal data from three waves (2001, 2003 and 2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study and adapting the Future Elderly Model to simulate four scenarios of hypothetical interventions that would reduce diabetes incidence and to project the future diabetes prevalence rates among populations 50 years and older. Data from 14 662 participants with information on self-reported diabetes, demographic characteristics, health and mortality. We obtained, for each scenario of diabetes incidence reduction, the following summary measures for the population aged 50 and older from 2012 to 2050: prevalence of diabetes, total population with diabetes, number of medical visits. In 2012, there were approximately 20.7 million persons aged 50 and older in Mexico; 19.3% had been diagnosed with diabetes and the 2001-2003 diabetes incidence was 4.3%. The no-intervention scen...Continue Reading

Citations

Jul 18, 2017·Zdravstveno Varstvo·Sanije GashiSilvije Vuletic
Jan 17, 2019·Current Diabetes Reviews·Omar Yaxmehen Bello-ChavollaCarlos Alberto Aguilar-Salinas
Aug 14, 2020·BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care·Bendix CarstensenMarit Eika Jørgensen
Oct 22, 2020·Journal of Diabetes Research·Paola Peña-GonzálezPaloma Roa-Rojas
Feb 2, 2021·Health Policy Open·Elysse Bautista-GonzálezManuel Urbina-Fuentes
Mar 28, 2021·Health Economics·Vincenzo AtellaBryan Tysinger
Jun 30, 2021·Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice·Jacqueline A SeiglieEdson Serván-Mori

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Software Mentioned

ENSANUT
FEM
Mexico

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