Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Kathleen M O'ReillyLaith Yakob

Abstract

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America & the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, and has had serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and a lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries. Methods: Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 91 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vector capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories. Results: The...Continue Reading

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Cross Validation
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Spatio-Temporal Analysis
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