Projection of osteoporosis-related fractures and costs in China: 2010-2050

Osteoporosis International : a Journal Established As Result of Cooperation Between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA
L SiA J Palmer

Abstract

A state-transition microsimulation model was used to project the substantial economic burden to the Chinese healthcare system of osteoporosis-related fractures. Annual number and costs of osteoporosis-related fractures were estimated to double by 2035 and will increase to 5.99 (95 % CI 5.44, 6.55) million fractures costing $25.43 (95 % CI 23.92, 26.95) billion by 2050. Consequently, cost-effective intervention policies must urgently be identified in an attempt to minimize the impact of fractures. The aim of the study was to project the osteoporosis-related fractures and costs for the Chinese population aged ≥50 years from 2010 to 2050. A state-transition microsimulation model was used to simulate the annual incident fractures and costs. The simulation was performed with a 1-year cycle length and from the Chinese healthcare system perspective. Incident fractures and annual costs were estimated from 100 unique patient populations for year 2010, by multiplying the age- and sex-specific annual fracture risks and costs of fracture by the corresponding population totals in each of the 100 categories. Projections for 2011-2050 were performed by multiplying the 2010 risks and costs of fracture by the respective annual population estima...Continue Reading

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