Proposition of real-time precise prediction model of infectious disease patients from Prescription Surveillance using the National Database of Electronic Medical Claims

Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy : Official Journal of the Japan Society of Chemotherapy
Yuuki NakamuraMiwako Kamei

Abstract

The incidence of common pediatric infectious diseases has been monitored officially at sentinel medical institutions in Japan. However, the numbers of affected patients are not provided. Prescription Surveillance (PS), which infers the number of patients with influenza, varicella, and gastrointestinal infections from data related to prescriptions at external pharmacies, provides estimates to the public the following morning. This study assessed the prediction ability of the incidence of common pediatric infectious diseases from PS information using the National Database of Electronic Medical Claims (NDBEMC): the number of patients prescribed neuraminidase inhibitors, anti-herpes virus drugs, antibiotic drugs, antipyretic analgesics, and multi-ingredient cold medications. The diseases include RS virus infection, pharyngoconjunctival fever, hand, foot and mouth disease, erythema infectiosum, exanthem subitum, pertussis, herpangina, influenza, varicella, and gastrointestinal infection. For comparison, we used the estimated number of patients who were prescribed neuraminidase inhibitor in PS, which had been confirmed already for precision, and provided estimates to the general public via the internet. The discrepancy rates of all c...Continue Reading

References

Apr 18, 2002·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Anna GoldenbergStephen E Fienberg
May 17, 2003·Journal of Epidemiology·Shuji HashimotoMasaki Nagai
Jan 18, 2012·Journal of Medical Internet Research·Tamie SugawaraNobuhiko Okabe

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