Psychological plausibility of the theory of probabilistic mental models and the fast and frugal heuristics

Psychological Review
Michael R P DoughertyRick P Thomas

Abstract

The theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM; G. Gigerenzer, U. Hoffrage, & H. Kleinbölting, 1991) has had a major influence on the field of judgment and decision making, with the most recent important modifications to PMM theory being the identification of several fast and frugal heuristics (G. Gigerenzer & D. G. Goldstein, 1996). These heuristics were purported to provide psychologically plausible cognitive process models that describe a variety of judgment behavior. In this article, the authors evaluate the psychological plausibility of the assumptions upon which PMM were built and, consequently, the psychological plausibility of several of the fast and frugal heuristics. The authors argue that many of PMM theory's assumptions are questionable, given available data, and that fast and frugal heuristics are, in fact, psychologically implausible.

Citations

Sep 19, 2007·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·Timothy J Pleskac
Jun 17, 2010·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·Julian N MarewskiGerd Gigerenzer
Aug 13, 2010·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·Thorsten Pachur
Dec 21, 2010·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·Benjamin E Hilbig
Jan 26, 2011·Memory & Cognition·Hidehito HondaKimihiko Yamagishi
Feb 18, 2011·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·Norman R Brown, Shawn Tan
Nov 8, 2012·Psychonomic Bulletin & Review·Patrick H KhaderKerstin Jost
Dec 4, 2010·Annual Review of Psychology·Gerd Gigerenzer, Wolfgang Gaissmaier
Jan 19, 2011·Health Expectations : an International Journal of Public Participation in Health Care and Health Policy·Marie-Anne DurandGlyn Elwyn
May 19, 2009·Experimental Psychology·Rocio Garcia-RetameroGerd Gigerenzer
Nov 7, 2008·Acta Psychologica·Magnus Persson, Jörg Rieskamp
Dec 17, 2014·Memory & Cognition·Benjamin E HilbigEdgar Erdfelder
Jul 19, 2018·PloS One·Ashley LawrenceMichael Dougherty
Mar 12, 2021·Cognition·Wanling Zou, Sudeep Bhatia

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

Related Papers

Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
Ben R Newell, David R Shanks
Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
Thorsten Pachur, Ralph Hertwig
Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition
Tobias Richter, Pamela Späth
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved