Quantifying the risk of local Zika virus transmission in the continental US during the 2015-2016 ZIKV epidemic

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Kaiyuan SunAlessandro Vespignani


Background: Local mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in two counties of the continental United State (US), prompting the issuance of travel, prevention, and testing guidance across the continental US. Large uncertainty, however, surrounds the quantification of the actual risk of ZIKV introduction and autochthonous transmission across different areas of the US. Method: We present a framework for the projection of ZIKV autochthonous transmission in the continental US during the 2015-2016 epidemic, using a data-driven stochastic and spatial epidemic model accounting for seasonal, environmental and detailed population data. The model generates an ensemble of travel-related case counts and simulate their potential to trigger local transmission at individual level. Results: We estimate the risk of ZIKV introduction and local transmission at the county level and at the 0.025 degree by 0.025 degree cell level across the continental US. We provide a risk measure based on the probability of observing local transmission in a specific location during a ZIKV epidemic modeled after the one observed during the years 2015-2016. The high spatial and temporal resolutions of the model allow us to generate statistical ...Continue Reading

Related Concepts

Spatial Distribution
African American
Disease Transmission
Asymptomatic Infections
Zika virus (organism)

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