Quantifying the role of modifiable risk factors in the differences in cardiovascular disease mortality rates between metropolitan and rural populations in Australia: a macrosimulation modelling study

BMJ Open
Laura AlstonMelanie Nichols

Abstract

The study aimed (1) to quantify differences in modifiable risk factors between urban and rural populations, and (2) to determine the number of rural cardiovascular disease (CVD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths that could be averted or delayed if risk factor levels in rural areas were equivalent to metropolitan areas. National population estimates, risk factor prevalence, CVD and IHD deaths data were analysed by rurality using a macrosimulation Preventable Risk Integrated Model for chronic disease risk. Uncertainty analysis was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation of 10 000 iterations to calculate 95% credible intervals (CIs). National data sets of men and women over the age of 18 years living in urban and rural Australia. If people living in rural Australia had the same levels of risk factors as those in metropolitan areas, approximately 1461 (95% CI 1107 to 1791) deaths could be delayed from CVD annually. Of these CVD deaths, 793 (95% CI 506 to 1065) would be from IHD. The IHD mortality gap between metropolitan and rural populations would be reduced by 38.2% (95% CI 24.4% to 50.6%). A significant portion of deaths from CVD and IHD could be averted with improvements in risk factors; more than one-third of the exces...Continue Reading

Citations

Jul 24, 2018·Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health·Jane JacobsMelanie Nichols
Mar 12, 2020·Nutrition & Dietetics : the Journal of the Dietitians Association of Australia·Laura Alston, Stephanie R Partridge
Dec 19, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Sandra C ThompsonFrank Sanfilippo
Dec 15, 2020·The Medical Journal of Australia·Sonya R OsborneSimon Holliday
May 1, 2021·The Lancet Regional Health. Europe·João BredaKremlin Wickramasinghe

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