Range contraction and increasing isolation of a polar bear subpopulation in an era of sea-ice loss

Ecology and Evolution
Kristin L LaidrePatrick Heagerty

Abstract

Climate change is expected to result in range shifts and habitat fragmentation for many species. In the Arctic, loss of sea ice will reduce barriers to dispersal or eliminate movement corridors, resulting in increased connectivity or geographic isolation with sweeping implications for conservation. We used satellite telemetry, data from individually marked animals (research and harvest), and microsatellite genetic data to examine changes in geographic range, emigration, and interpopulation connectivity of the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation over a 25-year period of sea-ice loss. Satellite telemetry collected from n = 43 (1991-1995) and 38 (2009-2015) adult females revealed a significant contraction in subpopulation range size (95% bivariate normal kernel range) in most months and seasons, with the most marked reduction being a 70% decline in summer from 716,000 km2 (SE 58,000) to 211,000 km2 (SE 23,000) (p < .001). Between the 1990s and 2000s, there was a significant shift northward during the on-ice seasons (2.6° shift in winter median latitude, 1.1° shift in spring median latitude) and a significant range contraction in the ice-free summers. Bears in the 2000s were less likely to leave BB, with sign...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Dec 19, 2019·Global Change Biology·Bart PeetersBrage B Hansen
Jan 12, 2020·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Kristin L LaidreMarkus Dyck
Sep 24, 2020·Global Change Biology·Kristin L LaidreBenjamin R Cohen
Apr 22, 2020·Ecology and Evolution·Evelyn L JensenStephen C Lougheed
Jun 20, 2020·Ecology and Evolution·Brooke A BiddlecombeAndrew E Derocher
Sep 9, 2021·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Simo Njabulo MadunaSnorre B Hagen

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
biopsies
Biopsy
genotyping

Software Mentioned

R
FSTAT
STRUCTURE
ARLEQUIN
ArcGIS
R Development Core Team
Argos Location Service Plus system
GENELAND
ARGOS
GENECLASS2

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