Ratio Format Shapes Health Decisions: The Practical Significance of the "1-in-X" Effect

Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Miroslav Sirota, Marie Juanchich

Abstract

Prior research found that "1-in-X" ratios led to higher and less accurate subjective probability than "N-in-X*N" ratios or other formats, even though they featured the same mathematical information. It is unclear, however, whether the effect transfers into health decisions, and the practical significance of the effect is undetermined. Based on previous findings and risk communication theories, we hypothesized that the 1-in-X effect would occur and transfer into relevant decisions. We also tested whether age, gender, and education differences would moderate the 1-in-X effect on decision making. We conducted 3 well-powered experiments ( n = 1912) using a sample from the general adult UK population to test our hypotheses, estimated the effect, and excluded a possible methodological explanation for such a transfer. In hypothetical scenarios, participants decided whether to travel to Kenya given the chance of contracting malaria (experiment 1) and whether to take recommended steroids given the side effects (experiments 2 and 3). Across the experiments, we replicated a small to medium 1-in-X effect on the perceived probability (Hedge's g = -0.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.47 to -0.24; z = -6.18; P < 0.001) and found a small ef...Continue Reading

References

Jun 14, 2005·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Bruce BarrettRoger Brown
Jul 18, 2008·Epidemiology·John P A Ioannidis
Apr 23, 2011·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Stefania PighinJean-François Bonnefon
Sep 17, 2011·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Brian J Zikmund-Fisher
Sep 21, 2011·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Angela FagerlinPeter A Ubel
Oct 27, 2012·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Stefania PighinLaura Cremonesi
Dec 7, 2013·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Miroslav SirotaRobert Hanak
Dec 19, 2013·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Brian J Zikmund-Fisher
Dec 21, 2013·Behavior Research Methods·Eyal PeerAlessandro Acquisti
Mar 15, 2015·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Jurriaan P Oudhoff, Daniëlle R M Timmermans
Apr 24, 2015·Prenatal Diagnosis·Stefania PighinLaura Cremonesi
Nov 1, 2007·Psychological Science in the Public Interest : a Journal of the American Psychological Society·Gerd GigerenzerSteven Woloshin
Feb 17, 2017·Health Psychology : Official Journal of the Division of Health Psychology, American Psychological Association·Miroslav SirotaOlga Kostopoulou
Oct 27, 2017·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Miroslav SirotaSudeep Bhatia
Dec 26, 2017·Social Psychological and Personality Science·Daniël Lakens, Alexander J Etz
Sep 25, 2018·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied·Miroslav SirotaJean-Francois Bonnefon

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Mar 5, 2021·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Carissa BonnerBrian J Zikmund-Fisher

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

Prolific Academic
R
Prolific
R package metafor

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

Related Papers

Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Miroslav SirotaRobert Hanak
Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Miroslav SirotaSudeep Bhatia
Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied
Miroslav SirotaJean-François Bonnefon
Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Stefania PighinJean-François Bonnefon
Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
M M SchapiraC A McHorney
© 2022 Meta ULC. All rights reserved