Rationality, the Bayesian standpoint, and the Monty-Hall problem

Frontiers in Psychology
Jean Baratgin

Abstract

The Monty-Hall Problem (MHP) has been used to argue against a subjectivist view of Bayesianism in two ways. First, psychologists have used it to illustrate that people do not revise their degrees of belief in line with experimenters' application of Bayes' rule. Second, philosophers view MHP and its two-player extension (MHP 2) as evidence that probabilities cannot be applied to single cases. Both arguments neglect the Bayesian standpoint, which requires that MHP 2 (studied here) be described in different terms than usually applied and that the initial set of possibilities be stable (i.e., a focusing situation). This article corrects these errors and reasserts the Bayesian standpoint; namely, that the subjective probability of an event is always conditional on a belief reviser's specific current state of knowledge.

References

Apr 10, 1999·Psychological Review·P N Johnson-LairdJ P Caverni
Sep 10, 2004·Journal of Experimental Psychology. General·Bruce D Burns, Mareike Wieth
Oct 28, 2014·Frontiers in Psychology·David R Mandel
Mar 13, 2015·Frontiers in Psychology·Nicole CruzDavid E Over
Apr 16, 2015·Frontiers in Psychology·Elisabet TubauEric D Johnson
Apr 24, 2015·Frontiers in Psychology·Jonathan St B T EvansDavid E Over

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Citations

Dec 24, 2015·Frontiers in Psychology·David R Mandel, Gorka Navarrete
Sep 21, 2018·Frontiers in Psychology·Jean BaratginTatsuji Takahashi
Jun 13, 2020·Frontiers in Psychology·Karin BinderPatrick Wiesner

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MHP

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