Real-time forecasting of emergency department arrivals using prehospital data

BMC Emergency Medicine
Andreas AsheimSara M Nilsen

Abstract

Crowding in emergency departments (EDs) is a challenge globally. To counteract crowding in day-to-day operations, better tools to improve monitoring of the patient flow in the ED is needed. The objective of this study was the development of a continuously updated monitoring system to forecast emergency department (ED) arrivals on a short time-horizon incorporating data from prehospital services. Time of notification and ED arrival was obtained for all 191,939 arrivals at the ED of a Norwegian university hospital from 2010 to 2018. An arrival notification was an automatically captured time stamp which indicated the first time the ED was notified of an arriving patient, typically by a call from an ambulance to the emergency service communication center. A Poisson time-series regression model for forecasting the number of arrivals on a 1-, 2- and 3-h horizon with continuous weekly and yearly cyclic effects was implemented. We incorporated time of arrival notification by modelling time to arrival as a time varying hazard function. We validated the model on the last full year of data. In our data, 20% of the arrivals had been notified more than 1 hour prior to arrival. By incorporating time of notification into the forecasting model...Continue Reading

References

Feb 16, 2008·Academic Emergency Medicine : Official Journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine·Spencer S JonesGregory L Snow
Mar 29, 2008·Academic Emergency Medicine : Official Journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine·Melissa L McCarthyGabor D Kelen
Apr 25, 2008·Annals of Emergency Medicine·Nathan R Hoot, Dominik Aronsky
Nov 15, 2008·Academic Emergency Medicine : Official Journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine·Steven L BernsteinUNKNOWN Society for Academic Emergency Medicine, Emergency Department Crowding Task Force
May 26, 2009·Emergency Medicine Journal : EMJ·M WargonG Hejblum
Jun 10, 2011·Emergency Medicine Journal : EMJ·Zoë Slote MorrisSusan Robinson
Jun 28, 2011·Emergency Medicine Journal : EMJ·Justin BoyleGerard Fitzgerald
May 18, 2013·European Journal of Emergency Medicine : Official Journal of the European Society for Emergency Medicine·Nina M F LangloLars P Bjørnsen
Sep 24, 2013·International Emergency Nursing·Jochen BergsSandra Verelst
Dec 17, 2016·Journal of General Internal Medicine·Carl O ErikssonJeanne-Marie Guise
Sep 7, 2017·The Western Journal of Emergency Medicine·Danielle M McCarthyScott M Dresden

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

R
RStudio

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved